The US avoided a recession in 2023 despite a flashing historical indicator
The inverted yield curve between the 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries spooked investors last year.
Spread between 10-year and 2-year yields
A line chart showing the spread between the 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries with US recessions marked out. The Treasury line makes a U-shape before recessions.
