The shrinking House battleground

As the congressional map has become more closely tied to partisanship, the governing party holds fewer districts that underperformed the president’s national showing. That means fewer opportunities for the minority to pick up seats.

House seats held by the president's party before and after a midterm election, by level of support for the president

*Total seats won in 2024 reflect post-election redistricting as of February 12, 2026. The general midterm elections will take place Nov. 3, 2026.
Notes: Level of support is based on national vote share at the last presidential election by congressional district. "High support" seats are congressional districts that had 5 percentage points or more above the national vote in support for the president, "matches support" seats had between 4 percentage points above and below the national vote share and "low support" seats had 5 percentage points below or less compared to the national vote share. The 2020/2022 comparison is not included due to redistricting that followed the 2020 Census.

Source: The Center for Politics, University of Virginia based on presidential results by Congressional district compiled by The Downballot

Graphic: Annette Choi and Rhyannon Bartlett-Imadegawa, CNN